The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 300/10...uncertain
because the storm seems to be decelerating...and the center may be
occasionally re-forming due to convective bursts. There is no
change to the previous forecast reasoning. Danny is north of a
mid/upper-level low centered over Hispaniola and southwest of a
mid/upper-level ridge center east of Bermuda. This pattern should
steer Danny generally northwestward for the next 24 hr or so.
After that...a mid/upper-level trough should develop over the Great
Lakes...with a mid/upper-level low over the Gulf Coast states
moving eastward or northeastward. This evolution should cause
Danny to turn northward and then recurve into the westerlies.
While the models agree on the scenario...there is still significant
uncertainty as to what land area Danny may affect. The ECMWF...
UKMET...and Canadian models forecast the center to pass near Cape
Hatteras and then make landfall in New England. The GFS and GFDL
show the center passing east of Hatteras and then passing near or
over Cape Cod. The HWRF and NOGAPS...as well as the corrected
consensus models...show the center passing east of Cape Cod and
near or over Nova Scotia. Overall..the guidance envelope has
shifted slightly to the east since the last advisory. The new
forecast track is also shifted slightly to the east and lies near
the middle of the guidance envelope. The forecast track is roughly
parallel to the U. S. East Coast...and any deviation from the track
could make a large difference in what areas get impacted by Danny.
Therefore...it is important not to focus too much on the exact